The meaning of investing has never been about predicting market ups and downs, but about finding deterministic long-term assets amid major transitions and designing an action framework that can survive cycles.
01 | Mega Trends: Productivity Leaps Determine Asset Evolution
Three main threads will shape the global productivity landscape over the next 20 years:
- AI & Computing Power Revolution — A paradigm shift similar to the Industrial Revolution and Internet Revolution, continuously reshaping corporate profit models and national competitiveness.
- Demographics & Aging — East Asia, Europe, and the US all face "low growth + high burden," creating demand for stable cash flow assets.
- Monetary & Institutional Fragmentation — The USD remains hegemonic, but de-dollarization, crypto-native finance, and digital assets will become part of the new order.
Conclusion: Quality assets of the future will inevitably be embedded in these three threads.
This framework pairs well with KK ETFs INDEX. DYOR! DYOR! DYOR!
02 | Four Dimensions of Certainty Assets
- Cash Flow Certainty: Capable of sustained dividends/buybacks, or having stable user payment habits.
- Rule Certainty: Clear property rights, institutional support, capable of long-term operation.
- Productivity Embeddedness: Irreplaceable social infrastructure (such as computing power, electricity, payment).
- Long-term Growth: Ability to expand long-term with GDP or industry dividends.
03 | US Stocks: AI + Platform Leaders Remain the Core
US quality assets have proven two principles over the past 70 years:
- Index Self-Evolution → Long-term holding of S&P/Nasdaq is essentially "betting on American productivity."
- Leader Long-termism → FAANG, with continuously strengthening cash flow and moats.
Directions worth holding long-term for the next 20 years:
- Computing Chain Leaders: NVIDIA (GPU), TSMC (manufacturing), ASML (lithography), Broadcom (communication chips).
- AI Platforms: Microsoft (cloud+Copilot), Gemini, Claude, OpenAI ecosystem-related public companies.
- Cloud + Software Subscription Model: Amazon, Figma, PLTR, NET.
Allocation Logic: US stocks portion = broad-based indices (S&P500/Nasdaq) + AI/computing chain leaders.
04 | Japanese Stocks: Structural Opportunities & "Post-Lost Decades Recovery"
Japan's 30-year stagnation kept asset valuations low, but recovery signals have emerged since the 2020s:
- Japanese companies hold massive overseas cash assets, and dividend/buyback culture is forming.
- The yen has been undervalued long-term, benefiting export industries and overseas earnings.
- Structural industry advantages: materials, semiconductor equipment, robotics, automotive electrification.
Quality directions for the next 20 years:
- Robotics & Automation: FANUC, Yaskawa Electric.
- Semiconductor Equipment: Tokyo Electron, SCREEN.
- Automotive Electrification & Battery Chain: Toyota, Panasonic.
- High Dividend ETFs (such as JPX-Nikkei 400, TSE dividend-type ETFs).
05 | Web3: Native Finance & Crypto Certainty Assets
Web3 is a "new asset class" emerging from institutional and monetary fragmentation, with certainty derived from code and network effects.
Quality assets are divided into three layers:
-
Currency & Settlement Layer
- BTC (immutable monetary rules, global value anchor)
- ETH (smart contract settlement layer, block space fee revenue)
-
Infrastructure Layer
- Oracles (Chainlink)
- Decentralized Storage (Arweave, Filecoin)
- Cross-chain Communication (LayerZero, Wormhole)
-
Cash Flow Protocols
- Market Makers & Stablecoins (Uniswap, Aave, MakerDAO, Circle), REV models with stable revenue
- DEX/CEX, Binance, OKX, Coinbase, Hyperliquid, etc.
Allocation Logic: Web3 is a satellite asset in the portfolio, using small capital to capture high growth while focusing on protocols that continuously generate cash flow.
06 | Gold & Supranational Assets
Gold's certainty comes from central bank accumulation + de-dollarization; it remains a global "value anchor." Bitcoin is digital gold, gradually gaining sovereign institutional recognition, with US equities accelerating the entire market through the DAT model.
Allocation approach:
- Gold ETF / Physical = 5–10%
- BTC / ETH = 2–5%
07 | Allocation Framework: Core—Satellite—Opportunity
Standard Allocation (suitable for A7+ long-term holders; if you're a speculator, core and satellite assets can be swapped)
-
Core Assets 65%
- US Stocks: S&P/Nasdaq broad-based + AI/computing leaders
- Japanese Stocks: High dividend ETFs + semiconductor/robotics leaders
-
Satellite Assets 25%
- Web3: BTC/ETH + cash flow protocols
- Gold/Commodities: Hedge against currency and inflation
-
Opportunity Assets 10%
- Early-stage VC Web3/AI projects
- Trend trading (CTA, macro hedging)
08 | Execution & Discipline
- Dollar-cost averaging into indices, concentrate on leaders: Don't try to bottom-pick, trade time for space.
- Rebalancing: Trigger at ±10% bandwidth (e.g., if BTC rises to 15% of portfolio, automatically reduce position).
- Cash Flow Anchoring: Ensure cash flow ≈ 30% of portfolio value every 5–6 years to avoid being washed out in bear markets.
- Cathie Wood Strategy: Cast wide net early, hold leaders mid-term, hold only top leaders late-stage.
09 | Conclusion
Quality assets for the next 20 years are not about finding a perfect answer, but about navigating major transitions with:
- Core: US AI & computing chain, Japanese recovery industries.
- Satellite: Web3 certainty protocols, gold and digital gold.
- Opportunity: Trending new sectors.
The ultimate goal of investing is not to predict market movements, but to let certainty assets and compound interest work for you.
Tips - What is "Core—Satellite—Opportunity"?
A classic asset allocation framework (Core–Satellite Strategy):
Core: Long-term stable assets that bear primary returns and risk control, such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, Japanese high-dividend ETFs, Bitcoin, ETH, gold. Characteristics: "strong certainty, low volatility, long-term holdable."
Satellite: Growth assets that are unstable, used to enhance portfolio excess returns, such as Web3, crypto assets, innovative tech stocks, etc. Characteristics: "high growth, high risk, asymmetric returns."
Opportunity: High-risk, high-reward speculative or short-term opportunity investments, such as early-stage startup projects, hot sector themes (AI Agents, quantum computing, NFT boom, etc.). Characteristics: "high odds, low position, strategic participation."
Satellites are like moons orbiting Earth (core), cannot replace the core but can add extra light and momentum to the portfolio.
Tips - Cathie Wood Strategy:
- Early stage like VC: Compete on coverage and luck.
- Mid-stage like growth investor: Compete on insight and strategic judgment.
- Late-stage like value investor: Compete on certainty and stable cash flow.
