fear

DYOR, this dashboard is meant to be a comprehensive data reference for Bitcoin market conditions, not a trading signal generator. Always cross-check with your own research and risk management.

Use the playbook below to observe regime shifts, leverage resets, liquidity migration, market rotation, and macro spillovers across crypto.

Last refresh: 4/19/2026, 7:33:16 PM

Composite Bottom Model

Combine all indicators into a single bottom probability score.

35Bottom Score

Current band: Neutral

Score range

• 0 - 30 Overvalued
• 30 - 60 Neutral
• 60 - 80 Undervalued
• 80 - 100 High probability bottom zone

Bottom Alert Engine

Trigger alert when at least five conditions are met.

Active conditions: 0/8

Red: risk zone

BTC price below Realized Price

75980 < 54553

OFF

MVRV Z-score below -1

Missing MVRV Z-score

UNKNOWN

Fear and Greed index below 20

Current 27 (Fear)

OFF

Dormancy flow extremely low

Missing dormancy flow

UNKNOWN

Active addresses rising

7d average is not rising

OFF

VIX above 30

Current 17.94

OFF

S&P 500 drawdown above 20%

Current 0.00%

OFF

Funding rate negative for extended period

Need at least 8 hourly funding points

UNKNOWN

Traffic light system: Green = strong accumulation zone, Yellow = neutral, Red = risk zone.

Layer 1: Market Price and Core Valuation

Display key valuation metrics for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price (real-time)

$75,980.00

Market Cap

$1,519,876,429,259

Realized Cap

N/A

CryptoQuant

Realized Price

$54,553.00

CryptoQuant

MVRV Ratio

1.33

CryptoQuant

MVRV Z-Score

N/A

Optional Glassnode fallback

200 Week MA

N/A

Bottom Zone Rules

MVRV<1 / Z<0 / Z<-1

Historical bottom highlighting enabled

Price vs Realized Price

No chart data

Price vs 200W MA

No chart data

MVRV Ratio historical

Waiting for CryptoQuant series

MVRV Z-score cycle

Waiting for Glassnode series

Layer 2: On-chain Activity and OG Holder Behavior

Measure network usage and long-term holder conviction.

Active Addresses

439,552

Blockchain.com

Transaction Count

695,157

Blockchain.com

Mempool Stats

140,720.5

Blockchain.com

NVT

20.9

Primary API pending, fallback to research snapshot when needed

Exchange Reserve

2,708,000

CryptoQuant

Exchange Inflow

N/A

CryptoQuant

Exchange Outflow

N/A

CryptoQuant

Long-term holder metrics

• Long Term Holder Supply Ratio (pending source)
• Dormancy Flow (pending source)
• Coin Days Destroyed (pending source)
• LTH-SOPR (pending source)

Old OG holder activity

• Coins > 5 years moved (pending source)
• Coins > 10 years moved (pending source)
• HODL waves distribution (pending source)

Signal logic

• Low dormancy + rising active addresses => early accumulation phase
• Old coins moving aggressively => late-cycle distribution signal

Layer 3: Market Sentiment Indicators

Add sentiment and behavioral metrics.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index

27 (Fear)

Funding Rate (perpetual futures)

-5.4613e-6

Hyperliquid / Coinalyze

Open Interest

27,773

Hyperliquid / Coinalyze

Long/Short Ratio

N/A

Coinalyze

Fear and Greed timeline

Funding rate heatmap

Coinalyze series extension pending

Open interest vs price

Coinalyze series extension pending

Layer 4: Macro Asset Environment

Track macro assets that historically correlate with Bitcoin cycles.

S&P 500

7,022.95

Nasdaq

24,102.7

Gold

4,879.6

Crude Oil

100.72

DXY

98.23

Correlation BTC vs S&P 500 (90d)

N/A

Correlation BTC vs Gold (90d)

N/A

Correlation BTC vs DXY (90d)

N/A

Layer 5: Volatility and Risk Indicators

Track systemic market stress.

VIX Index

17.94

MOVE Index (bond vol)

N/A

FRED

Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)

0.55

FRED

S&P 500 Drawdown

0.00%

Put/Call Ratio

0.54

Cboe

Bear market detection rules

• S&P 500 below 200 day moving average
• Yield curve inversion
• VIX > 30

Observation Playbook

Extract the current fear-page strategy first, then extend it into a broader crypto market observation workflow.

Current page strategy

The existing implementation is a bottom-observation framework built around layered evidence and a risk-first operating rule.

Bottom probability model

The current page is a Bitcoin bottom-observation stack built to collect evidence, not to force a trade.

What to watch

• Composite score aggregates valuation, on-chain activity, sentiment, macro assets, and volatility risk.
• Bottom Alert Engine turns green only when at least five of eight bottom conditions are active.
• Historical cycle framing references 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022 for context instead of one-cycle anchoring.

How to read it

• A high score means multiple stress and capitulation signals are aligning, not that a reversal is guaranteed.
• A low score means the market is still expensive or crowded, so patience matters more than prediction.

Layered evidence workflow

The page treats market observation as a sequence of layers instead of a single magic metric.

What to watch

• Layer 1 asks whether price is historically compressed versus realized value and long-term trend.
• Layer 2 checks whether network activity and holder behavior support real demand or distribution.
• Layer 3 reads crowding, fear, and derivatives positioning.
• Layer 4 and Layer 5 filter for macro spillover and cross-asset stress.

How to read it

• When several layers agree, conviction can rise.
• When valuation looks cheap but leverage and macro still deteriorate, the model stays defensive.

Risk-first operating rule

The dashboard is explicitly framed as a decision-support system for research, not a trading signal generator.

What to watch

• Use the dashboard to reduce narrative noise and structure weekly or daily reviews.
• Treat unknown or missing metrics as uncertainty, not as bullish confirmation.
• Cross-check all outputs with your own risk management, sizing rules, and time horizon.

How to read it

• The best use case is regime detection and watchlist prioritization.
• The worst use case is turning one dashboard refresh into forced execution.

Expanded crypto market observation strategies

These strategies make the dashboard more useful for daily and weekly market review beyond pure bottom-fishing.

Regime classification

Label the market as capitulation, repair, trend continuation, or overheating before making any directional conclusion.

What to watch

• Composite score band, fear and greed, price versus realized price, MVRV, VIX, and funding rate.
• If fear is extreme and leverage is washed out, focus on repair probability rather than instant upside.
• If greed rises while valuation and leverage are both stretched, shift to protection mode.

How to read it

• This strategy keeps the dashboard useful outside of absolute bottoms.
• It converts a bottom model into a full market-state model.

Leverage reset and crowded positioning

Watch whether derivatives are cleansing risk or rebuilding fragility.

What to watch

• Funding rate trend, open interest direction, long/short ratio, liquidations, and exchange inflow pressure.
• Negative funding with falling open interest often signals a reset phase.
• Positive funding with rising open interest and euphoric sentiment often signals crowding.

How to read it

• A clean reset can create better risk-reward than a euphoric breakout.
• Crowded longs are often more dangerous than a weak headline.

Liquidity migration

Track where capital is moving across Bitcoin, stablecoins, exchanges, and risk assets.

What to watch

• Exchange reserve, exchange inflow or outflow, stablecoin supply trend, ETF or treasury accumulation when available.
• Falling exchange reserves with stable or improving demand can support constructive structure.
• Rising exchange inflows during macro stress can imply sell-side pressure.

How to read it

• This helps separate true accumulation from temporary price reflex.
• Liquidity direction matters as much as spot price.

BTC to ETH to alt rotation watch

Read breadth and rotation instead of assuming the whole market moves as one asset class.

What to watch

• BTC dominance, ETH/BTC, TOTAL3 breadth, sector leadership, and whether alts outperform on up days or only underperform on down days.
• If Bitcoin leads while breadth stays narrow, the market is usually still defensive.
• If ETH and quality beta start outperforming with healthier breadth, risk appetite is broadening.

How to read it

• This prevents a Bitcoin-only dashboard from missing broader crypto regime shifts.
• Rotation is often the bridge between BTC macro trades and full crypto risk-on.

Holder conviction and old coin behavior

Use on-chain behavior to tell apart early accumulation, mature trend, and late distribution.

What to watch

• Dormancy flow, coin days destroyed, LTH-SOPR, old coins moved, and HODL wave changes.
• Low dormancy with improving activity often supports accumulation.
• Aggressive old-coin movement into strength often signals mature-cycle distribution.

How to read it

• Holder behavior adds context that derivatives data cannot provide.
• Old supply moving is usually more informative than loud social sentiment.

Macro spillover monitor

Treat crypto as connected to global liquidity and cross-asset volatility, especially during stress.

What to watch

• DXY, Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, VIX, MOVE, and yield-curve signals.
• Rising dollar, rising rates volatility, and equity stress usually tighten crypto conditions.
• Falling macro stress with stable on-chain demand can create cleaner trend continuation.

How to read it

• This strategy prevents false optimism during macro-led drawdowns.
• It also explains why crypto can fail to rally even when internal metrics improve.

Narrative breadth and event risk

Pair dashboard metrics with the event calendar so regime changes are not misread as isolated data noise.

What to watch

• CPI, FOMC, ETF flow releases, exchange incidents, unlocks, token launches, and major regulatory headlines.
• Separate event shock from structural change by checking whether leverage, liquidity, and breadth confirm the move.
• Track whether the same narrative is spreading across majors, sectors, and on-chain activity.

How to read it

• A strong market absorbs bad news with limited leverage damage.
• A weak market uses good news to exit, which is usually a warning.

Operator rules

• Start with regime first, then check leverage, then confirm liquidity and breadth.
• Do not let one bullish metric override worsening macro or crowded positioning.
• Treat missing fields as unknown and say so explicitly in research output.
• Use the dashboard to write a market brief, not to generate a blind buy or sell command.

Historical Backtesting Module

Overlay all indicators during 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022 to visually compare cycle bottoms.

2015

Post-2013 capitulation recovery

Focus: valuation compression + low activity base.

2018

ICO bust and long consolidation

Focus: leverage reset + deep fear regime.

2020

COVID liquidity shock

Focus: macro stress spike + rapid mean reversion.

2022

Leverage unwind cycle

Focus: systemic deleveraging + prolonged bear.

API Sources

Hyperliquid API / Binance API / CoinGecko API / CryptoQuant API / Coinalyze API / Yahoo Finance API / FRED API / Cboe Market Statistics / Alternative.me API / Blockchain.com API / Glassnode API / Bitbo API / Research Snapshot (Manual)